The final day of our poll results looks at trends in fixed-income markets during the coming year, including the outlook for interest rates, credit conditions and headcount.
| What is the biggest risk to Asian credit? | |
| A China slowdown | 40.3% |
| Fed tapering | 27.6% |
| Geopolitical risks | 14.5% |
| Rise in corporate defaults | 17.6% |
|
Which country in Asia is likely to experience the most corporate debt defaults? |
|
| China | 56.8% |
| Hong Kong | 0.8% |
| India | 5.2% |
| Indonesia | 13.3% |
| Korea | 1.2% |
| Malaysia | 1.7% |
| None | 9.1% |
| Philippines | 1.5% |
| Singapore | 0.2% |
| Taiwan | 0.4% |
| Thailand | 3.5% |
| Vietnam | 6.2% |
|
Which of the below do you expect will see sovereign credit upgrades in the next 12 months? |
|
| China | 5.2% |
| Hong Kong | 2.8% |
| India | 20.2% |
| Indonesia | 15.6% |
| Korea | 5.2% |
| Malaysia | 3.9% |
| Philippines | 14.3% |
| Singapore | 3.9% |
| Taiwan | 1.6% |
| Thailand | 3.8% |
| Vietnam | 7.6% |
| None | 15.9% |
|
Which of the below do you expect will see sovereign credit downgrades in the next 12 months? |
|
| China | 10.8% |
| Hong Kong | 1.4% |
| India | 6.1% |
| Indonesia | 6.8% |
| Korea | 2.7% |
| Malaysia | 7.6% |
| Philippines | 6.3% |
| Singapore | 0% |
| Taiwan | 1.6% |
| Thailand | 16% |
| Vietnam | 7.4% |
| None | 33.3% |
|
Which Asian central bank has had the most accommodative monetary policy over the past year? |
|
| China | 36.9% |
| Hong Kong | 13% |
| India | 4.4% |
| Indonesia | 3.1% |
| Korea | 11.7% |
| Malaysia | 2.1% |
| Philippines | 8.3% |
| Singapore | 9.4% |
| Taiwan | 3.6% |
| Thailand | 6.5% |
| Vietnam | 1% |
|
What are your expectations for 2014's annual G3 DCM new issuance volume? |
|
| Between $140b and $150b | 16.3% |
| Between $150b and $160b | 39.3% |
| Between $160b and $170b | 22% |
| More than $170b | 22.5% |
|
Do you think that investors will rotate out of bonds into equities during the next 12 months? |
|
| No | 45.8% |
| Yes | 34.5% |
| Do not know | 19.7% |
|
Do you expect cases of distressed debt to rise in Asia over the next 12 months? |
|
| Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 29.3% |
| Do not know | 9.4% |
|
Please estimate the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond by end of 2015 |
|
| Under 2% | 0.6% |
| Between 2% and 2.5% | 18.6% |
| Between 2.5% and 3% | 36.4% |
| Between 3% and 4% | 41.3% |
| More than 4% | 3% |
|
Do you expect banks to hire more DCM staff, or simply retain existing numbers? |
|
| Decrease staffing levels | 18.6% |
| Increase staffing levels | 24.2% |
| Maintain staffing levels | 57.1% |
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