HSBC has put out its 2001 currency forecasts. In the Philippines it is forecasting the peso at Ps54 ($1.02) by year end and GDP growth of 1%. It also estimates that the budget deficit finished 2000 at Ps120 billion ($2.27 billion), almost double the country’s original target of Ps62.5 billion.
In Malaysia it is forecasting 3.5% growth and saying the government’s finances will suffer from lower oil prices. It assumes the ringgit will remain pegged at M$3.80.
In Korea it is forecasting 3.7% growth and a year end won of W1250. It sees better growth of 5.6% for India and a rupee that slips to Rs49.60. It is bullish thanks to falling oil prices – since oil imports make up 25% of India’s total imports.
China will have the best performance in 2001 according to HSBC, with growth of 7.5% and a static currency. It does, however, forecast China’s export growth to fall from 35% to 7%. Hong Kong is predicted to have a poorer year with growth collapsing to 3.4%.
It says the $140 billion of external debt held by Indonesia will put pressure on the Indonesian rupiah, which will end the year at Rp10,000, and that growth will fall to 2.5%.
Singapore will see growth of 4.8%, but the currency will strengthen slightly versus the US dollar. Taiwan is predicted to have 4% growth and a slightly weaker currency. It advocates a long position on the Thai baht which it predicts will end the year at Bt40. It reckons on only 2.5% growth.
If any other banks would like their currency and GDP forecasts published, please email them to [email protected].
