While it has taken many months to reach a consensus, most analysts now accept that global base metal prices reached their peak in April last year and probably won’t return to those dizzying heights in the current cycle. Now the question is: how long will prices remain elevated above the marginal cost of production, given the large lift in mine supply due in resources like iron ore and copper? Many had hoped the so-called “commodities super cycle” would run for two decades, but that prospect now looks decidedly doubtful.