Prospects and pitfalls of an Asian recovery in 2009

Until September 2008, the Asia-Pacific region was showing reasonable, if moderating growth even as concerns about the global financial problem and its spill-over into macroeconomic performance intensified. During this period, there was some hope that regional momentum would continue, driven by domestic and intra-regional trade.

The two charts below display growth in exports and industrial production respectively in January-September 2008 over the corresponding period of 2007. The growth levels vary across countries but, for the most part, are positive. The charts also display the growth rates for these two monthly indicators over the subsequent period of, typically, two months. Keeping in mind the difficulties in comparing growth over periods of differing length,
the contrast between the two is quite striking.